From my experience,at this stage of the world,the tribe that will win the world forms.
Usually,the winner is the result of merges,new recruits and so on.Maybe this world will be one of the few exceptions and nl3 or ndh will win in the formation they are now,but people got rl,they tend to quit a lot,so I'd say things aren't as certain as they look.
Both nl3 and ndh are strong,but imo ndh is surrounder by no way,tribal and nl3 and that's gonna give ndh a lot of work.But if they can survive this "hell" then I guess they are indeed worthy of their rank,maybe even worthy of taking the first spot.