ok, so I'm bored and even though there are only like 5 people who ever visit the .us forums I figured I would add a bit
1. Butter - 18 members and in the lead points wise (duh) but they have a few issues. Of the 18 members only 11-12 seem fully active over the last week with a few being actively internaled. Additionally, given their central location they have many fronts and must rely and their diplomacy nearly as much as their skill to continue to the end of the world. Their future hinges (imo) on their ability to A. increase their activity through new players or recruitment and B. Skillfully diplomacy to keep some other tribes at bay. In the last week they have nobled 133 villages of those 31 (or 23%) were barbarians, 53 were internals (40%) and the rest were other war caps.
2. Batali - 17 members and in second place, trailing Butter by nearly 150 villages. Like Butter they are suffering from activity in this mid world stage. Of the 17 members only 11 show stong growth in the last week, with several members barely gaining any points or even losing points. They also have a centralized location and are currently losing the war with Butter. Their top talent is some of the best in the world, or at least the most active and that is certainly keeping them at the top of the rankings. Like Butter, they must rely on diplomacy to keep their backside free for this war on butter. In the last week they gained 96 villages of which 42 were barbs and 28 were either overnobles/internals leaving only 26 player villages. Not a great week
3. TIP - at 21 members. Of the top three tribes their membership base shows the most consistent activity. Though it isn't impressive growth by any means it is still there. Backing up to the rim they are in a prime position for expansion and could cause Butter problems if their diplomacy with them sours. However, their growth is much slower than the first two tribes, in the last week only 62 caps, of which nearly 50% were barbs and nearly the rest were internals. Combined with their sister/brother tribe of TAP, they would be the second largest tribe next to Butter, but given their lust for barbs and aversion to fighting I see them as only growing villages for other players to take them later
4. Deception - 18 member, but with 4 semi-active. Their location between butter and batali requires skillfull diplomacy for them to continue. Several decent members and decent growth for this tribe. Currently they are fighting for the rim against NO IDEA and winning. Tribal ODA ranks them third. However, I don't see this tribe making it to the end. A merger of their top members is most likely.
5. No Idea family - 52ish members, but with only 17 of their 41 caps in the last week coming from non-internals/barbs it shows that perhaps No Idea really does live up to their name.
6. CM - 21 member with about 16 looking active enough. As a rim tribe they have fewer enemies to worry about and given a few caps against butter and batali this week they appear to not be afraid to attack the bigger guys. If any rim tribe will succeed I would predict it would be this one, Its tribal ODA is much higher that either NO IDEA and TIP and is nearly as large as Deception.
7. No Idea Family Tribe
8. Tap Part of Tip
9. END - Small rim tribe, whenever Batali wants to end them they will (pun intended)
10. TRBL - Small rim tribe losing slowly to CM.
Predictions: The top tribes have the talent to win the world, but the question is do they have the will or activity to do so? Given that this world is quickly disintegrating into a barb fest I see more of a major merger will be the deciding factor in the ending of the world with two/three top tribes getting board and hugging it out.